Newsmax/InsiderAdvantage Poll: Romney in Free Fall

GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney’s decision to campaign negatively in Iowa appears to have backfired, with a new Newsmax-InsiderAdvantage poll showing the former Massachusetts governor plummeting to fourth place in the Hawkeye State -- a swift decline that pollster Matt Towery describes as “imploding.”

Romney’s lead in New Hampshire is evaporating as well, Towery adds.

The InsiderAdvantage survey of 517 registered likely Iowa caucus-goers shows former House Speaker Newt Gingrich the leading choice of 27 percent of Iowa Republicans. He is followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 17 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 13 percent, Romney at 12 percent, and Bachmann at 10 percent.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman have 7 percent and 4 percent respectively.

For Romney, the results are a stark contrast from earlier this month, when several polls showed him grabbing 20 percent of the vote in Iowa. At that point, pundits speculated it was even possible Romney could win Iowa outright.

Now, just a few weeks later, Towery says Romney is imploding.

“He’s imploding in the sense that somebody had to take all the Herman Cain vote, and then you had a large undecided vote. Throughout that entire time period, Romney has not moved a single point, and he’s moved from being in second place to being in fourth place,” says Towery. “So clearly whatever he’s been doing in Iowa is not working.”

Towery attributes Romney’s decline to his violation of one of the cardinal rules of Iowa politics: To always campaign on a positive rather than a negative basis.

In the past week Romney has unleashed surrogates to brand former Gingrich as a “faux conservative,” in the words of former New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu. Romney challenged Gingrich to return the $1.6 million he received while consulting troubled mortgage lender Freddie Mac. Romney also has been criticized for offering to make a $10,000 bet with Perry at the latest GOP debate.

Towery said Romney not only has attacked Gingrich, but has done so openly, attaching his name to the various charges that he’s leveled.

“That does not fly in Iowa,” Towery declared. “…In my judgment, they just took the wrong approach.”

Towery said that Romney would have been better off playing it conservative in Iowa, accepting a loss, and then moving on to continue the battle in New Hampshire.

“I think it’s one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen a campaign do, when they had so much good will in terms of how people felt about the candidate himself,” Towery said. “I mean, they may think he’s a moderate or a flip-flopper or whatever, but I don’t think anybody has ever accused Mitt Romney with being a bad guy.

“And now he’s turned himself into a bad guy in Iowa, a state where you can’t get away with it, because everybody talks to everybody,” he said.

Perhaps even more ominous for Romney, however, is the poll’s indication that Romney’s problems may have spread beyond Iowa.

“Because he’s having trouble in Iowa now, it’s spilling over to New Hampshire,” Towery said. “And while he still has a lead in New Hampshire, it’s not a compelling lead. And at one point it was an overwhelming lead.”

An NBC/Marist Poll conducted at the end of November showed Romney with a decisive double-digit lead over Gingrich, 39 percent to 23 percent. But the Newsmax-InsiderAdvantage poll of 521 likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire shows Gingrich rapidly narrowing the gap.

Romney continues to lead with 29 percent of the vote in New Hampshire. Gingrich is second at 24 percent, and Paul is surging into a close third place with 21 percent of the vote. Huntsman, who in some ways has pursued a one-state strategy, is the only other candidate in double figures, with 11 percent. Following Huntsman are Bachmann with 4 percent, Santorum with 2 percent, and Perry with 1 percent.

Both the Iowa poll and the survey in New Hampshire have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent, according to Towery. He added that Paul is a serious factor in both states, and other candidates ignoring him do so at their peril.

Read more on Newsmax.com: Newsmax/InsiderAdvantage Poll: Romney in Free Fall

Fox News Poll: Newt Opens Commanding Lead.

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  AP
  Dec. 8, 2011: Newt Gingrich speaks during a business forum in Greenville, S.C.

Newt Gingrich is the clear front-runner for the 2012 Republican nomination -- and the biggest beneficiary of Herman Cain’s departure from the race. Mitt Romney, again, holds steady with about a quarter of GOP primary voters in his camp.A Fox News poll released Thursday shows Gingrich up 13 percentage points since mid-November. Cain suspended his campaign on December 3.
In the latest snapshot of the race, Gingrich receives the backing of 36 percent of GOP primary voters. That’s up from 23 percent last month -- and is three times the 12 percent he had in late October. It also represents the largest share of the vote that a candidate has received in six months of Fox News polling. The previous high was 26 percent for Romney over the summer.
That puts significant distance between the former House speaker and former front-runner Romney, who receives 23 percent in the new poll. Last month, 22 percent supported Romney and 15 percent Cain.
Romney has consistently polled in the low-to-mid 20s among GOP primary voters. In six months of Fox News polling, Romney’s highest backing came in July and August, with 26 percent. He hit a low of 20 percent in late October. 
Click here for full poll results.
Ron Paul also picked up bit of support with Cain out of the race. Paul now receives 12 percent, up from 8 percent three weeks ago.
Rick Perry comes in at 8 percent. Last month, he had 7 percent.
Among voters who are part of the Tea Party movement, Gingrich receives 44 percent. That far outdistances Paul (15 percent) and Romney (11 percent).
Despite leading the GOP pack, there’s a lack of enthusiasm for both Gingrich and Romney.
Some 34 percent of GOP primary voters say, if Gingrich were the nominee, they would vote for him and support him “enthusiastically,” while nearly half (49 percent) would “just vote for him.” Another 13 percent would vote for someone else or not vote at all in the general election.
The results are similar if Romney were to become the nominee: 28 percent of GOP primary voters would support him “enthusiastically,” while about twice that number -- 55 percent -- would “just vote for him.” Twelve percent would back someone else or stay home.
The poll also asked Republican primary voters their second choice. Just over half of Gingrich backers -- 52 percent -- say Romney is their second choice. Under half of Romney supporters -- 48 percent -- pick Gingrich as their second choice.
Overall, slightly more voters would rather spend every day of the next year with Romney (36 percent) than Gingrich (32 percent) if they had to pick between the two. Some 24 percent would refuse to spend that much time with either Republican contender.
Republicans would choose to spend every day with Gingrich over Romney by 11 percentage points (46 percent-35 percent).
The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 911 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from December 5 to December 7. For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. For the subgroup of 356 GOP primary voters, it is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/12/08/fox-news-poll-gingrich-leads-in-gop-voter-preference/#ixzz1g00hEIhW